The Rookies – Where I Already Know I Was Wrong:

By Jake Boxberger 

Well, I had an article planned complete with semi-comedic titles of other rookies that would make an impact, but I am just too depressed by the class right now to even send it in.  And I know what you may be thinking, “But Box… we are only one month into the season! Can’t you give these kids some time!?” My answer is no.  I have seen what I need to see from these guys and while some may improve and become solid rotation players, I am starting to lose hope.  In the words of the mediocre Dennis Green, “They are who we THOUGHT THEY WERE!” Or, in this case, who I currently think they are.

What makes this even more difficult is how amazing College Basketball has already been.  There are bonafide stars at the top and the classic powers (Duke, KU, Michigan State etc.) look to be in championship form. In my first article I tried to justify the current rookies, but I could think of at least five guys (burgers and fries) coming out in next summer’s draft that would be consensus top overall picks in this past year’s crop.  But hey, college basketball ratings are way up, which I don’t mind.  It seems as though the money-grubbing suits that run the clown center called the NCAA are getting what they always wanted with this “one year in college” garbage, but that is a conversation for another time.

Where Box Was Right

Victor Oladipo

Like I said in my first article, it does not take a genius to know that Victor would be a good player in this class.  I will say though, that I was incorrect about coach Jacques Vaughan letting him jack up 15-20 shots per game.  I guess I was under the impression that Aaron Afflalo’s best days were behind him.  Boy, I was wrong there.  Aside from that, Oladipo has looked almost exactly how I predicted.  He has not shot the ball that well from the outside but has used his elite athleticism and quickness to get to the rim and finish with highlight level plays.  I also said that the Magic would try to play him at point guard a good amount this season to see if he has the potential.  This is where his growing pains have come.  He still needs to develop his handles and learn how to run a team, but if he does, he is Russell Westbrook with a better attitude.

His basic averages are right around where I thought they would be (13 ppg, 4rpg, 3apg) and I expect them to grow by a bit near the end of the season when he gets more comfortable.  Shooting 39% from the field is a bit lower than I want, but if he continues attacking the rim and lets Afflalo do the perimeter shooting, it will also be better by the end of the year.  Honestly, I am not too alarmed that his assist to turnover ratio is below 1.0 because there were going to be obvious hurdles in that department when you try to play him at point.  If I were Vaughan though, I would continue to play him there and embrace the mistakes.  In a year where it makes no sense to be a mediocre to middle-of-the-road team, the more you let him develop, the more ping pong balls you will have when the lottery comes around.  Then, by next year you will (hopefully) have a dynamic play maker point guard, Aaron Afflalo, a legitimate 15 and 10 man in Vucevic (The big man) and a big time rookie.  That’s a team I could get behind for the future.  As a side note, who would have ever though that the Magic would be BY FAR the winners of the Dwightmare trade.  Maybe that will be the topic of my next article.

  

Kelly Olynyk

Has he set the world on fire with numbers resembling his summer league totals? In a word, no, no he has not.  Has he shown rapid improvement and looked like a guy who will have a decent NBA career as a third or fourth option? Yes, he most certainly has.  His minutes were not there in the first few games, but now he is getting to play around half the game and is being decently affective while he is in there.  For a rookie getting 24 minutes per, 8 ppg, 6 rpg and 2 apg is not too shabby.  Perhaps he will not get the recognition of some other players due to his slow and deliberate game and his lack of big time athleticism, but from a basketball purist’s viewpoint, he is doing the little things that lead to a productive career.  Hell, he is averaging more assists per game right now that Ben McLemore, who is playing similar minutes at the guard spot.

Here’s what I do not like about Kelly.  That shooting percentage has got to come up.  Most of his critics a said that he would have a difficult time making shots over NBA length, and it is starting to look justified. On top of that, he has not shown the ability to stretch the floor like I saw in the Summer League.  He is shooting a measly 18% from downtown right now (not a typo) and does not look to be adjusting to the deeper arc.  He might improve it by the end of the year, but expect a significant improvement next year when he realizes that the deep ball is a must have for his style of game.

Kelly embodies what I thought this draft class would be: no TRUE star potential, but the kind of player that can be a significant piece on a decent team.  Boston will not be a decent team for a couple years, so he has time to keep getting better.  I would love for them to be in a spot to draft Julius Randle.  I think that they would be nice offensive compliments to each other and would do a great job on the boards.  Unfortunately, just when Olynyk solidified his place in the starting lineup, he sprained his ankle.  Ankles are hard to predict, but around Christmas, I expect him to be in the starting lineup.

Where I Was Wrong

Cody Zeller

This one is still up in the air, but it looks as though Cody looks to be in a dangerous spot.  He is currently on the path to becoming his brother, and that is being optimistic.  Playing time was not really there early in the year and even when it was, it seemed as though he was forcing the issue, trying to justify his draft position, rather than letting the game come to him.  He is a smart basketball player, so I expected more from him.  My major sign of alarm is that the kid cannot hit a shot on a consistent basis.  His shooting percentage is in the mid thirties, which is completely unacceptable for a big man.  Oh yeah, and that whole ‘stretch four’ thing I envisioned looked to be an optimistic dream, because he has not even attempted one three pointer the entire season.

I am also concerned about how inconsistent his rebounding effort.  The numbers have been more volatile than a tech stock, and that should simply not be.  If he is playing 18 minutes per game and his shot has not been falling, he should be averaging about six rebounds per game, not four.  Am I knit-picking? Maybe, but honestly I do not think I am asking too much.   Perhaps his rebounding is lack luster because the Cats cannot play a lick of defense.  That was one of my main concerns going in to the season.

There is hope though.  The skill set is there, and I believe the shots will start to fall.  I also think he will start to attack the basket and get to the line more.  He does, after all, shoot a very high percentage from the stripe.  As I said in my first article, I was thoroughly depressed when MJ drafted Zeller.  Had he ended up with any other team in the top 10, I believe his numbers would be much better. 

Anthony Bennett

Well I do not really feel too bad about this one, because I did not want him in my top 5 anyways, but McCollum just HAD to get hurt.  I was rushing to find a default, and chose the wrong one based on preseason stats.  Terrible analysis, Box.  This kid is currently challenging Kwame Brown as one of the worst starts for a number one overall in the past 30 years.  The time he has been in the game (and it has been very limited), he has looked absolutely lost out there.  Granted, it does not help that the Cavs look to have less chemistry than the cast of “Marvel’s Agents of SHEILD.”  I mean, I thought Cody was having a bad shooting start, but Bennett made only one shot in his first seven games.  Wow… Right now he is shooting a whopping 24% from the field and 17% from down town.  That is honestly comical. To top all that off, he has made zero free throws this season.  No really, he has made ZERO free throws.  With that body, you have to get to the cup and earn the points from the line.  He just has not done that.

New Cavs coach, Mike Brown is a defense first coach, and maybe that is why Bennett has been warming the bench, but honestly, there is probably more than five reasons for his 10 minute per game average.  I want to find some sort of positive for this kid, but honestly, I do not see it right now.  His ‘tweener’ status has truly been his downfall, even though I did not think it would affect him.  I fully expect him to be a starter for the Canton Charge by the time January rolls around.  Who knows, maybe that will force him to decide on a particular way to play.  It is early, but it appears as though Bennett will be the poster boy for the mediocrity of the draft as a whole.

             

Where I Should've Trusted My Gut –      

Guys Who Should Have Been Top 5

Michael Carter-Williams

Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the actual rookie of the year.  Not to sound like Skip Bayless, but I actually did see this one coming. “Why was he not in your top five,” you might ask.  Good question. I did not have the stones at the time of my first article to take the chance on putting him in the top five when no other sports writer projected a good year.  I learned a valuable lesson from Mr. MC-Dub: Go With Your Gut!  I really liked Carter-Williams coming out of college, even though I cannot stand Syracuse as a team.  He could not shoot a lick, but he was so quick and exceedingly tall for the point guard position.  Watching him in college reminded me of what Shaun Livingston was supposed to be, before one of the most gruesome injuries in the history of basketball.  He could see over defenses, use his length to bother point guards that were often at least 3 inches shorter than him and handle like the rock like a true point.  He did (and still does) have turnover issues, but the spread out, up and down game of the NBA is far more suited to his style than college ball.

Now, don’t get me wrong, I do not expect him to continue to average 17 points and 7 assists per game all year, but I would not be surprised if he finished in the 15, 6 and 5 range.  No rookie this year will touch those stats, mainly because no rookie in the league has been given the keys to the bus more than MCW.  I give that Sixers management all the credit in the world.  They knew they weren’t going to be good, signed a Popovich assistant as their coach and could be in the position to get a top 5 pick.  MCW paired with a lottery from next year equals a very, very good young core.

Nate Wolters

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YES! I love it.  Honestly, if you don’t love the fact that former South Dakota State Jack Rabbit, Nate Wolters has proven to be a top ten rookie, then you have no soul.  Wolters looks like he was an extra on Hoosiers, but has big time game.  I wanted to do an article about the potential sleepers of the draft, but it seemed kind of pointless given how bad the draft was.  Does anyone else want to see a potential new age Steve Nash, while we all have to watch the real thing deteriorate in front of our eyes? Because I most certainly do.  Wolters put up Durantula-esque numbers in college and led a D-III team to the big dance.  Honestly, he put that team in his North Face back pack and sprinted all the way to the field of 68, only to get embarrassed in the first round (22 PPG, 6 RPG, 6 APG).

Enough about his college career.  He was thrust into the role of started as the first two options for Milwaukee went down early, and made the most of it.  He hasn’t been scoring as much as he did in college, but that is the positive part.  It is apparent through his play that he knows how to play point guard, not just be a scoring guard.  His averages of 9 points and 5 assists might not seem great, but let me put it into perspective.  He had an assist to turnover ratio of about 4, which was the second best in the league through November.  Not only that, he was almost playing thirty minutes per game! Only MCW can touch that playing time.  Unfortunately for all of us, Luke Ridnour and Brandon Knight are healthy now, so the past few games his minutes have been sliced.  Its too bad, because he honestly might be their best point guard option.  Oh well, I am rooting for ya, Nate.