BPN's Fantasy Football Files: Picking your QB

By Brett Neal 

With the start of the NFL season less than a month a way, fake managers everywhere are scrambling to put together their fake teams that they will be fake coaching. For many of you reading this, I bet you've been for fiending for this fantasy football like Amanda Bynes craves cocaine. Many of you have read Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto, memorized Karabell's Do Not Draft list, and bookmarked ESPN's Cheat Sheets. Some of you are creating excel spreadsheets of players you may end up with in case God burdens you with the dreaded 10th pick. And a couple of you have even started rosterbating in the mock draft lobby. If this is you, please seek counseling. 

For those of you looking to get ahead of the curve and potentially take home a championship, you've come to the right place. I have managed a total of 15 teams over the past 7 years, making it to the championship game 9 times, winning a total of 7 championships. My pledge brahs from Sigma Chi will admit I'm sort of a fantasy nuisance. U mad? 

Moving on to the draft formula, I'm about to let you in on my strategy and secrets. For you who take my advice, it should truly benefit you more than that of Matthew Berry. I'm not saying that he doesn't have some great advice, because he really does. The problem is that there are 9 other guys in your draft that are all listening to the same advice. This means wide receivers like Josh Gordon of the Cleveland Browns, and Chris Givens of the St. Louis Rams (who Berry suggests you reach for in the 10th round) will be snagged by some idiot in the 8th round. My advice is a little different: don't draft receivers from the Browns or Rams... ever.

Now, I don't have the time or the drive to break down the top 32 players at every position. Instead I will go through each position, giving my opinion on the top 10 according to ESPN rankings, then offer up a couple more players whose value should be higher than predicted. Let's start with the QB.

ESPN's Top 10 QB's

1. Aaron Rodgers (12)

2. Drew Brees (14)

3. Peyton Manning (19)

4. Tom Brady (25)

5. Cam Newton (31)

6. Matt Ryan (44)

7. Colin Kaepernick (46)

8. Robert Griffin (49)

9. Matt Stafford (65)

1o. Russell Wilson (69)

The question is the same every year; "How early do I want to take a QB?" According to ESPN, Aaron Rodgers should be the 12th player to come off the board. That's silly. That means second year players, like Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, and even last years disappointment, LeSean McCoy  should be taken before Rodgers. Granted, there are a lot of good QB's in the league, and not a lot of elite running backs. However, I guarantee that you will not be mad with a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. It is way more fun to have them on your team instead of playing against them. Every week they will consistently give you 20-30 points (sometimes 40). I would say take Rodgers as early as the 6th pick, and Brees as early as the 11th pick. 

Tom Brady will be an interesting pick this year. He's projected to go in the 3rd round with the 25th overall pick, sitting behind guys like his backfield mate RB Stevan Ridley, Denver WR Demaryius Thomas, and Titans RB Chris Johnson. Never has a New England running back been ranked higher than Tom Brady. I'm pretty sure that's a sign of the apocalypse. Now, Tom's team has had a rough off-season, and his draft stock is affected because of it. The Patriots didn't resign Brady's favorite target Wes Welker (now with Denver), dropped WR Brandon Lloyd, his TE Rob Gronkowski had another surgery, and his other TE Aaron Hernandez is now playing wide receiver for guys named Big Dawg, T-Bone, and White Power Bill. However, if you think Tom Brady is going to stop throwing touchdown passes, you're just wrong. Brady is the king of making irrelevant player relevant. Even former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel has 8 touchdown receptions from Brady. If Brady is there in the 3rd round, snag him. I'd even pull the trigger on him late 2nd round. I'd take his wife early 1st round.

There are a couple QB's I think should be taken with caution. We'll call them "The Runners". Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson. If you draft one of these guys, you could be very pleased with the results. In my opinion, there's just too much of an injury risk. Robert Griffin was a fantasy godsend for anyone who drafted him, and held the #1 QB ranking until about the halfway mark. Then came the concussions, followed by the busted knee. He is still not fully recovered from the surgery, and Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will be very cautious calling plays this year. If you draft RGIII, you are only drafting his arm, not his legs. Kaepernick is probably the safest of these draft picks. He's got the speed, he can throw the ball a million miles per hour, but what I like most is his teams schedule. Kaepernick faces the Packers, Colts, Texans, Redskins, Saints, Falcons, and Seahawks (twice). That's 7 games where Kaepernick will have to do a lot of throwing (and probably some running). The only thing that makes him an iffy pick is Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a great coach, but puts a lot of emphasis on the power running game, and comes back with a lot of play-action passes. These plays are typically designed to hit players in the flat, or dragging 15 yards down the field. Unless the 49ers are down big, don't expect Harbaugh to steer away from his consistent play calling. San Francisco also has a solid defense, which means Kaepernick may not have to air it out too much. If you draft any of these players, I recommend you use a mid round draft pick on a backup with some upside. Someone like Eli Manning, Tony Romo, or Matt Schaub.

One guy I will probably never draft on this list is Matt Stafford. He's just way too fragile, which is sad considering he's got the best receiver in the NFL to throw to in Calvin Johnson. This year, I'd rather have Eli Manning then Stafford, which I never thought I'd say, but it's true. I think the Giants are bad enough defensively (31st in total defense last year) that they could be trailing in just about every game of the season. Which means Eli may get 40-50 pass attempts each game, especially with a couple of new running backs who may have the same trouble finding space beyond the offensive line. Of course there's always that chance you start Eli on "his time of the month," where when he's bad, he's very bad. We're talking Ryan Leaf bad. I predict Eli has maybe one or two games like this. If your going to pick a QB out of the top 10, pick Eli, followed closely by Andrew Luck and Tony Romo.

BPN's new top 10 QB's

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Peyton Manning

4. Tom Brady

5. Colin Kaepernick

6. Matt Ryan

7. Cam Newton

8. Eli Manning

9. Russell Wilson

10. Andrew Luck