BPN's Complete Fantasy Football Files 2013

By Brett Neal 

With the start of the NFL season less than a month a way, fake managers everywhere are scrambling to put together their fake teams that they will be fake coaching. For many of you reading this, I bet you've been for fiending for this fantasy football like Amanda Bynes craves cocaine. Many of you have read Matthew Berry's Draft Day Manifesto, memorized Karabell's Do Not Draft list, and bookmarked ESPN's Cheat Sheets. Some of you are creating excel spreadsheets of players you may end up with in case God burdens you with the dreaded 10th pick. And a couple of you have even started rosterbating in the mock draft lobby. If this is you, please seek counseling. 

For those of you looking to get ahead of the curve and potentially take home a championship, you've come to the right place. I have managed a total of 15 teams over the past 7 years, making it to the championship game 9 times, winning a total of 7 championships. My pledge brahs from Sigma Chi will admit I'm sort of a fantasy nuisance. U mad? 

Moving on to the draft formula, I'm about to let you in on my strategy and secrets. For you who take my advice, it should truly benefit you more than that of Matthew Berry. I'm not saying that he doesn't have some great advice, because he really does. The problem is that there are 9 other guys in your draft that are all listening to the same advice. This means wide receivers like Josh Gordon of the Cleveland Browns, and Chris Givens of the St. Louis Rams (who Berry suggests you reach for in the 10th round) will be snagged by some idiot in the 8th round. My advice is a little different: don't draft receivers from the Browns or Rams... ever.

Now, I don't have the time or the drive to break down the top 32 players at every position. Instead I will go through each position, giving my opinion on the top 10 according to ESPN rankings, then offer up a couple more players whose value should be higher than predicted. Let's start with the QB...

ESPN's Top 10 QB's

1. Aaron Rodgers (12)

2. Drew Brees (14)

3. Peyton Manning (19)

4. Tom Brady (25)

5. Cam Newton (31)

6. Matt Ryan (44)

7. Colin Kaepernick (46)

8. Robert Griffin (49)

9. Matt Stafford (65)

1o. Russell Wilson (69)

The question is the same every year; "How early do I want to take a QB?" According to ESPN, Aaron Rodgers should be the 12th player to come off the board. That's silly. That means second year players, like Trent Richardson and Alfred Morris, and even last years disappointment, LeSean McCoy  should be taken before Rodgers. Granted, there are a lot of good QB's in the league, and not a lot of elite running backs. However, I guarantee that you will not be mad with a guy like Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees. It is way more fun to have them on your team instead of playing against them. Every week they will consistently give you 20-30 points (sometimes 40). I would say take Rodgers as early as the 6th pick, and Brees as early as the 11th pick. 

Tom Brady will be an interesting pick this year. He's projected to go in the 3rd round with the 25th overall pick, sitting behind guys like his backfield mate RB Stevan Ridley, Denver WR Demaryius Thomas, and Titans RB Chris Johnson. Never has a New England running back been ranked higher than Tom Brady. I'm pretty sure that's a sign of the apocalypse. Now, Tom's team has had a rough off-season, and his draft stock is affected because of it. The Patriots didn't resign Brady's favorite target Wes Welker (now with Denver), dropped WR Brandon Lloyd, his TE Rob Gronkowski had another surgery, and his other TE Aaron Hernandez is now playing wide receiver for guys named Big Dawg, T-Bone, and White Power Bill. However, if you think Tom Brady is going to stop throwing touchdown passes, you're just wrong. Brady is the king of making irrelevant player relevant. Even former Patriots linebacker Mike Vrabel has 8 touchdown receptions from Brady. If Brady is there in the 3rd round, snag him. I'd even pull the trigger on him late 2nd round. I'd take his wife early 1st round.

There are a couple QB's I think should be taken with caution. We'll call them "The Runners". Cam Newton, Colin Kaepernick, Robert Griffin, and Russell Wilson. If you draft one of these guys, you could be very pleased with the results. In my opinion, there's just too much of an injury risk. Robert Griffin was a fantasy godsend for anyone who drafted him, and held the #1 QB ranking until about the halfway mark. Then came the concussions, followed by the busted knee. He is still not fully recovered from the surgery, and Redskins coach Mike Shanahan will be very cautious calling plays this year. If you draft RGIII, you are only drafting his arm, not his legs. Kaepernick is probably the safest of these draft picks. He's got the speed, he can throw the ball a million miles per hour, but what I like most is his teams schedule. Kaepernick faces the Packers, Colts, Texans, Redskins, Saints, Falcons, and Seahawks (twice). That's 7 games where Kaepernick will have to do a lot of throwing (and probably some running). The only thing that makes him an iffy pick is Jim Harbaugh. Harbaugh is a great coach, but puts a lot of emphasis on the power running game, and comes back with a lot of play-action passes. These plays are typically designed to hit players in the flat, or dragging 15 yards down the field. Unless the 49ers are down big, don't expect Harbaugh to steer away from his consistent play calling. San Francisco also has a solid defense, which means Kaepernick may not have to air it out too much. If you draft any of these players, I recommend you use a mid round draft pick on a backup with some upside. Someone like Eli Manning, Tony Romo, or Matt Schaub.

One guy I will probably never draft on this list is Matt Stafford. He's just way too fragile, which is sad considering he's got the best receiver in the NFL to throw to in Calvin Johnson. This year, I'd rather have Eli Manning then Stafford, which I never thought I'd say, but it's true. I think the Giants are bad enough defensively (31st in total defense last year) that they could be trailing in just about every game of the season. Which means Eli may get 40-50 pass attempts each game, especially with a couple of new running backs who may have the same trouble finding space beyond the offensive line. Of course there's always that chance you start Eli on "his time of the month," where when he's bad, he's very bad. We're talking Ryan Leaf bad. I predict Eli has maybe one or two games like this. If your going to pick a QB out of the top 10, pick Eli, followed closely by Andrew Luck and Tony Romo.

BPN's new top 10 QB's

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Peyton Manning

4. Tom Brady

5. Colin Kaepernick

6. Matt Ryan

7. Cam Newton

8. Eli Manning

9. Russell Wilson

10. Andrew Luck

ESPN's Top 10 RB's

1. Adrian Peterson (1)

2. Arian Foster (2)

3. Marshawn Lynch (3)

4. Ray Rice (4)

5. Doug Martin (5)

6. Jamal Charles (6)

7. C.J. Spiller (7)

8. Trent Richardson (8)

9. Alfred Morris (9)

10. LeSean McCoy (11)

You can't argue with Peterson or Foster, they're both going to make you a very happy fantasy owner. The rest of the order is up for debate. The only reason I think Marshawn Lynch is up there in the three spot is the 67 yard run from the 2011 payoffs. 

That one play left such an impression on viewers, that they forgot Marshawn Lynch had 2 touchdowns in the first 7 games last season. However, Lynch did bounce back nicely rushing for 9 more touchdowns in the last 9 games of the season. Lynch has a pretty good offensive line in front of him, and the Seahawks defense will allow the offense to run the ball a lot more than most other teams. But, I have Lynch as this years 5th best RB. I like Ray Rice at #3, bouncing back from what fantasy owners would call an "off year." Losing Anquan Boldin to the 49ers and Dennis Pitta to injury just means more receptions for the speedy Rice. I guarantee that Jon Harbaugh's number one offensive strategy this year is to get Ray Rice the ball in open field. It seems to work, even on 4th and 29.

My #4 guy could be a surprise for some of you, but I'd take C.J. Spiller of the Buffalo Bills. Like Rice, this guy is lightening fast and the Bills will try to lighten the load for whichever QB Coach Doug Marrone selects. Although it is Marrone's first NFL head coaching gig, he served as the offensive line coach for the NY Jets, who only got Curtis Martin into the NFL Hall of Fame. He then filled the role of Offensive Coordinator for the New Orleans Saints from 2006-2008. Sure they had Drew Brees, but the Saints also rushed for 53 touchdowns in those three years. C.J. Spiller will be utilized, I guarantee it.

With the recent foot injury to Chiefs RB Jamal Charles, I would move him off my draft board. Even if it is just a foot strain, Kansas City isn't very good in the first place, and bad teams don't typically run the ball when losing by multiple scores. Even if Charles foot injury is minor, it happened at practice where guys are taught to "not touch the merchandise." Throw him in a game, where 300 pounders are falling all over him and a  minor injury has the potential to become major. You'll be better off taking Alfred Morris, LeSean McCoy, or Calvin Johnson if Charles is still there late first, early second round. If your draft is this week, I would tread lightly and pass on him. If you have time, monitor the situation. If Charles gets any playing time this preseason, then put him back on the board as my number 10 rated RB.

As for the 2nd tier of running backs, you might as well spin the wheel and hope for the best.     In his first game as an Atlanta Falcon, Steven Jackson did his best Michael Turner impression, gaining 8 total yards on 6 carries. Matt Forte is not named Brandon Marshall, so Jay Cutler will do his best to not give him the ball. Stevan Ridley is in Tom Brady's backfield. Frank Gore might lose the starting running back job to Colin Kaepernick, who will also play quarterback. Maurice Jones-Drew has a bum foot. And Chris Johnson dances more at the line of scrimmage than Billy Elliot. If I were to take any of these guys, it would still probably be Chris Johnson. Although he has been a complete bust the past 2 years, he still has "getting away from the cops speed."

If you don't like any of these names, then go ahead and pick a rookie or first-time feature back. Best case scenario, you've stumbled upon this years Doug Martin. There are plenty to choose from this year, all with reasonable draft value: David Wilson, NY Giants (32). Montee Ball, Denver Broncos (37). Chris Ivory, NY Jets (51). Eddie Lacy, GB Packers (58). Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (60). And finally, Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers (63). I'd try to snag at least one, maybe two if you took a QB in one of the first two rounds. Maybe stay away from "Fat Eddie." 

BPN's new top 10 RB's

1. Adrian Peterson

2. Arian Foster

3. Ray Rice

4. C. J. Spiller

5. Marshawn Lynch

6. Doug Martin

7. LeSean McCoy

8. Trent Richardson

9. Alfred Morris

1o.... Chris Johnson

ESPN's Top 1o WR's

1. Calvin Johnson (10)

2. A.J. Green (13)

3. Dez Bryant (16)

4. Brandon Marshall (20)

5. Julio Jones (22)

6. Demaryius Thomas (24)

7. Roddy White (26)

8. Vincent Jackson (28)

9. Andre Johnson (30)

10. Randall Cobb (33)

The wide receiver pool is always pretty deep, especially because "running the football" has become somewhat of an ancient art, kind of like calligraphy. Most of these ESPN top 10 deserve to be on that list, but I just don't think they deserve to be that high up on the overall draft board. Calvin Johnson is good, and I mean real good, but is he "draft before Aaron Rodgers" good? Same thing can be said for A.J. Green and Drew Brees, or Dez Bryant and Payton Manning. I would like to have those receivers on my team, but not if it means getting Matt Ryan over Aaron Rodgers as my QB. So, be careful when you draft a top 5 receiver. Pay attention to your draft position, make sure there are plenty of arms still on the board you would be comfortable with, especially if your towards the book-ends of your snake draft. 

My other recommendation would to make sure you take a running back before you pick a receiver. As cool as it would be to have Calvin Johnson, it is not cool to take him and get stuck with Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, or Stevan Ridley as your #1 running back. I'd rather take LeSean McCoy in the late first round, then snag Drew Brees or Peyton Manning when it comes back around, then grab Vincent Jackson in the 3rd.  

The difference between the best wide receiver (Calvin Johnson) and the 16th best receiver (James Jones) was 3.5 points per game. This means if you pass on Megatron, and still manage to pick up Vincent Jackson (8th best WR), then you've only lost about 2 points per game at the wide receiver position. Instead of Johnson, you might have picked up Drew Brees, this year's 2nd best QB, who averaged 21.1 points last year. Brees' 21.1 point average is already 2 points above the 3rd best quarterback, Peyton Manning, who averaged 19 points per game. Although I do not recommend drafting him in the first round, if at the start of the second round nobody has taken Calvin Johnson, then you've just stolen Spiderman and Inspector Gadget's love-child. If you are playing in a PPR (points per reception) league, then disregard everything you just read and go get that sucker middle or late 1st round.

"Professor Neal, I screwed up, It's the 5th Round and I don't have a wide receiver yet."

No worries kid, there's plenty of receivers that I like still on the draft board. This is where you will find your bounce-back receiver of the year, which went to Vincent Jackson in 2012. These were guys you might have considered top 10 guys a year ago, but have fallen back after one hiccup. We have Reggie Wayne (42), Mike Wallace (43), Hakeem Nicks (48), Steve Smith (50), and Dwayne Bowe (54). This whole group has had multiple solid years in the past, and warrant a 5th round selection. If you want to get real gutsy, take Danny Amendola, Tom Brady's new #1 receiver who is projected to go 47th overall. If Tom Brady can take a 5'9" white guy from Texas Tech and make him a potential hall-of-famer, then imagine what he can do with a 5'11 white guy from Texas Tech. 

Later on, you find more has-beens in the 6th and 7th round: Jordy Nelson (62), Pierre Garcon (64), DeSean Jackson (68), Torrey Smith (71), and Minnesota's new #1 wide out Greg Jennings (72). Stocking up on receivers like these guys is never a bad idea, especially because their trade value is better then that of a backup running back. 

My one sleeper pick this year is Vincent Brown of the San Diego Padres (Chargers, whatever.) My only worry is that Brown was considered a sleeper last year too, but never woke up (he must have hit the snooze). My logic is that Phillip Rivers used to be pretty good, and Ryan Mathews is still pretty bad. Overall, the Chargers are a pretty bad football team looking to get back to their former glory as a "sub par team that snuck into the playoffs every year." They will do so by throwing the football to Malcom Floyd Danario Alexander Vincent Brown. Alexander torn his ACL about a week ago, and Floyd tweaked his ACL Tuesday. Floyd hopes to be back sooner than expected since no structural damage was found in the knee, but always plan for the worst. This makes Brown much more valuable than his 132nd overall ranking suggests. Take him as early as the 9th round, your backup tight end can wait.

BPN's top 10 WR's

1. Calvin Johnson

2. A.J. Green

3. Brandon Marshall

4. Julio Jones

5. Vincent Jackson

6. Dez Bryant 

7. Roddy White

8. Andre Johnson

9. Demaryius Thomas

10. Wes Welker

Sit tight Greg Olsen, we'll be back

ESPN's Top 10 TE's

1. Jimmy Graham (29)

2. Rob Gronkowski (41)

3. Tony Gonzales (57)

4. Jason Whitten (61)

5. Vernon Davis (70)

6. Kyle Rudolph (83)

7. Owen Daniels (90)

8. Greg Olsen (93)

9. Antonio Gates (96)

10. Brandon Myers? (106)

I don't even know why ESPN still ranks tight ends, and who the hell is Brandon Myers? Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints would be a clutch grab if he is still available in the late 3rd or early 4th round, but go ahead and plan for life with out him. I may take Gronkowski in the late 5th, but not while there are still starting running backs like DeMarco Murray and Reggie Bush that fit nicely in the flex position. 

One guy I would wait on is Minnesota's Kyle Rudolph "the red-zone reindeer," currently projected to go in the early 9th round. One thing everyone in the NFL can agree on is that Adrian Peterson is really good at running the football. But He's just so much better when he has more field to work with. Once you get down in the red zone, teams will double down to stop Peterson, putting 8 or 9 guys in the box. That means its Kyle Rudolph time. With only two years of experience under his belt, Rudolph has already become a safety net for young QB Christian Ponder, as he's reeled in 20 of 23 red-zone targets. Rudolph's 87% catch rate from under 20 yards to the end zone is an unbelievable. Second best in that time span is Gronkowski at 65%, over 20 points lower. Although he only had 502 receiving yards, his 8 touchdowns was third among tight ends. He also was named NFC MVP of the Pro Bowl. 

Beyond the top 6 guys is a shot in the dark, so have some fun and draft a guy who you can live with for three weeks until the hot hand shows himself in the free agency. If I don't get a top 6 guy, I'm probably going to take a chance on Green Bay's Jermichael Finley, Chicago's Martellus Bennett, or Washington's Fred Davis. 

BPN's top 10 TE's

1. Jimmy Graham

2. Rob Gronkowski

3. Jason Whitten

4. Kyle Rudolph

5. Tony Gonzales

6. Vernon Davis

7. Greg Olsen

8. Owen Daniels

9. Antonio Gates

10. Martellus Bennett

Oh, and apparently this drunk guy is Brandon Myers...

ESPN's Top 10 D/ST's

1. Seahawks (103)

2. 49ers (113)

3. Texans (122)

4. Bears (130)

5. Broncos (133)

6. Bengals (139)

7. Patriots (143)

8. Steelers (148)

9. Rams (149)

10. Packers (150)

I'm not going to argue too much about where each Defense/Special Teams should be ranked, but I will let you know when you should pick your defense. One thing that can kill a fantasy draft is reaching for a D/ST three rounds ahead of their projected spot. 

Lets say its the middle of the 10th round, a guy drafting two spots in front of you is on the clock. He has drafted all of his starting position players and a couple back ups. With the 90th pick the Seahawks D/ST looks tempting, but the St. Louis Rams starting RB, Daryl Richardson, is still on the board. He makes the call to take the Seahawks D/ST, probably a 50-50 move. Spades have been broken. The guy drafting directly in front of you starts freaking out with the clock winding down and the top defense off the board, he takes the 49ers D/ST. You have already selected 2 QB's, 3 RB's, 3 WR, and a TE. You are now left with a choice: you can take the Texans D/ST, from your hometown, or you can take a starting RB who could wind up on your bench all season.

Boom goes the dynamite, you take the Texans D/ST with the 92nd overall pick, 30 spots ahead of where they should have gone. Even if the Texans did end up being the 3rd best D/ST on the year, you cannot be overly cautious with how fragile running backs and can be. In 2011, 5 starting running backs saw their year come to an end by tearing their ACL's: Adrian Peterson, Jamal Charles, Knowshon Moreno, Rashard Mendenhall, and Tim Hightower. Those are just the knee injuries, several others missed time with broken bones, cracked ribs, back ailments, concussions, and turf toe. Its wise to have 4 starting RB's on your team, just in case this happens to you. Best case scenario, everyone stays healthy and you end up with trade bait. 

The Dallas Cowboys D/ST is my underrated defense of the year. They really aren't that bad ever, but Tony Romo is. His turnovers have always put the defense in a bad position, giving them the bad rap they don't necessarily deserve. However, Head Coach Jason Garrett is no longer calling the plays. The play calling duties have been handed over to Bill Callahan, whose background is an offensive line coach. This means two things: the Cowboys will run the football with DeMarco Murray a lot more, and the O-line will hopefully do a better job protecting Romo. If these things happen, the Defense can stay off the field a lot longer, boosting their fantasy point total exponentially. I slotted them into my number 8 spot. Of course, I could have just jinxed them.

BPN's top 10 D/ST's

1. Seahawks

2. 49ers

3. Texans

4. Bears

5. Broncos

6. Bengals

7. Packers

8. Cowboys

9. Steelers

10. Ravens

ESPN's Top 10 Kickers

1. Stephen Gostkowski

2. Blair Walsh

3. Matt Bryant

4. Justin Tucker

5. Matt Prater

6. Phil Dawson

7. Randy Bullock

8. Josh Brown

9. Sebastian Janikowski

10. David Akers

My advice is that your league take ESPN's top 15 kickers and make a random drawing. Or better yet, write everyone's name down and... spin the wheel!

Everyone loves spinning a wheel!

I'm not even going to rank my top kickers; just don't draft this guy (or girl).