The Zimmerman Note
By Adam Zimmerman
An early wave of injuries and depth chart changes have left most teams - at both levels - looking very different than they did in August. And now with a few weeks with the new personnel under their belts, teams are finally showing us their true identities coming to Weeks 11 for College and 10 for the NFL. Match-ups and momentum will play a big role in many of these games.
Vanderbilt +10 @ Florida
In the last three years against the spread, as an underdog (as they usually are) Vanderbilt has been a respectable 10-8 while Florida has only managed a 15-19 record as a favorite in that same time. While many may point to the game being in the Swamp as a big advantage for the Gators, Muschamp is a meager 7-10 at home against the spread and the Commodores have managed a .500 record ATS in the last 3 years under Franklin.
I'd go with Vanderbilt +10
Mississippi State +20 @ Texas A&M
Johnny Manziel in hist last game in College Station. He's been the only positive for the Aggies this year and is the reason (along with Mike Evans) that they only have two losses. The Aggie defense is capable of blowing any point spread but this Mississippi State team may be just the offense that they need to make themselves look good.
I like Texas A&M -20
LSU +12 @ Alabama
The Tigers don't have much experience as an underdog the last three seasons (3-1) but the Tide have more than enough as a favorite (21-14). This may be the exact situation the Mad Hatter has been waiting for, nothing would make him happier than ruining Saban's season (and last one at Alabama?). However, I don't see it, Alabama looks unstoppable right now and nothing Zach Mettenberger can do will trip up this team.
Let's go with Alabama - 12
TCU -7.5 @ Iowa State
ISU has been much better against the spread as an underdog (13-13, last 3 years) than TCU has been as a favorite (7-17). Casey Pachall should be finding his rhythm in his 3rd game back but it may not be enough to pull away from the Cyclones on the road.
Take Iowa State +7.5
Florida State -35.5 @ Wake Forest
Jameis Squintston is in the driver's seat for the Heisman. When a team as good as this with a player as good as he is finally gets a week off from the national pressure of facing teams like Clemson and Miami, they pad their stats. I wouldn't be shocked if the Seminoles are close to covering by halftime.
Lay the points, Florida State -35.5
Texas -6.5 @ West Virginia
Gunslinger Case "Casanova" McCoy leads the Longhorns into the Appalachia looking to get some revenge for last year's shootout in Austin. Despite knocking off Oklahoma State, Dana Holgerson's squad has had a very down year. Texas is finally showing some the burst on offense and some of the toughness on defense that fans expected before the nightmare in Provo. Against WVU that 'some' will be enough.
The pick is Texas -6.5
Auburn -8.5 @ Tennessee
With relatively even numbers against the spread in recent years, and with two new head coaches, this game is hard to tell. I'm not sure I would touch this game, but the homer in me wants to go on the record as saying that with the way the Volunteers have played at home this year (6 turnovers against Western Kentucky, OT against Georgia and an upset over South Carolina) this team is capable of considerably outplaying its limited talent level and definitely capable of keeping it close enough to keep things interesting.
Make it a gentleman's bet for Tennessee +8.5
Dallas +7 @ New Orleans
I wanted to make a "the damn that was the Dallas defense has officially been breached" joke but I thought that might be inappropriate. Either way, New Orleans should be able to take care of the Cowboys in this game. As great as Dez and Tony have been this season, Drew and Jimmy have been better.
I guess you should take New Orleans -7
Denver -7 @ San Diego
In most cases, losing the head coach would be a big issue. But we all know Peyton was more or less the coach anyways. I don't see Manning letting Jack Del Rio do anything that would slow this team down. The Chargers have looked good against a pretty easy schedule so far but 7 is not a lot for Denver to cover here.
Go with Denver -7
Detroit PK @ Chicago
What's great about this game is all you have to do is predict the winner and you don't have to worry about the point-spread. The only reason why I would guess Vegas has this game as even is because it's in Chicago. However, Detroit is the much more healthy team. Even with Jay Cutler coming back, it's impossible to know how long he'll last after the first few hits from Ndonkeykong Suh. Also, if you haven't been paying close attention you've missed the fact that his Bears defense is not good. Calvin Johnson is.
Detroit wins it
Seattle -6 @ Atlanta
Atlanta can't run the ball and won't be able to pass against the Legion of Boom. I'd be wary of this game because Seattle isn't great on the road, but 6 points is not a lot to ask. Seattle could play poorly and easily win 20-13 or 28-20.
Let's take Seattle -6
Houston +2.5 @ Arizona
Houston still employs Randy Bullock. Houston is being led into this game by Wade Phillips.
Take Arizona -2.5
Good luck out there.
An early wave of injuries and depth chart changes have left most teams - at both levels - looking very different than they did in August. And now with a few weeks with the new personnel under their belts, teams are finally showing us their true identities coming to Weeks 11 for College and 10 for the NFL. Match-ups and momentum will play a big role in many of these games.
College
Vanderbilt +10 @ Florida
In the last three years against the spread, as an underdog (as they usually are) Vanderbilt has been a respectable 10-8 while Florida has only managed a 15-19 record as a favorite in that same time. While many may point to the game being in the Swamp as a big advantage for the Gators, Muschamp is a meager 7-10 at home against the spread and the Commodores have managed a .500 record ATS in the last 3 years under Franklin.
I'd go with Vanderbilt +10
Mississippi State +20 @ Texas A&M
Johnny Manziel in hist last game in College Station. He's been the only positive for the Aggies this year and is the reason (along with Mike Evans) that they only have two losses. The Aggie defense is capable of blowing any point spread but this Mississippi State team may be just the offense that they need to make themselves look good.
I like Texas A&M -20
LSU +12 @ Alabama
The Tigers don't have much experience as an underdog the last three seasons (3-1) but the Tide have more than enough as a favorite (21-14). This may be the exact situation the Mad Hatter has been waiting for, nothing would make him happier than ruining Saban's season (and last one at Alabama?). However, I don't see it, Alabama looks unstoppable right now and nothing Zach Mettenberger can do will trip up this team.
Let's go with Alabama - 12
TCU -7.5 @ Iowa State
ISU has been much better against the spread as an underdog (13-13, last 3 years) than TCU has been as a favorite (7-17). Casey Pachall should be finding his rhythm in his 3rd game back but it may not be enough to pull away from the Cyclones on the road.
Take Iowa State +7.5
Florida State -35.5 @ Wake Forest
Jameis Squintston is in the driver's seat for the Heisman. When a team as good as this with a player as good as he is finally gets a week off from the national pressure of facing teams like Clemson and Miami, they pad their stats. I wouldn't be shocked if the Seminoles are close to covering by halftime.
Lay the points, Florida State -35.5
Texas -6.5 @ West Virginia
Gunslinger Case "Casanova" McCoy leads the Longhorns into the Appalachia looking to get some revenge for last year's shootout in Austin. Despite knocking off Oklahoma State, Dana Holgerson's squad has had a very down year. Texas is finally showing some the burst on offense and some of the toughness on defense that fans expected before the nightmare in Provo. Against WVU that 'some' will be enough.
The pick is Texas -6.5
Auburn -8.5 @ Tennessee
With relatively even numbers against the spread in recent years, and with two new head coaches, this game is hard to tell. I'm not sure I would touch this game, but the homer in me wants to go on the record as saying that with the way the Volunteers have played at home this year (6 turnovers against Western Kentucky, OT against Georgia and an upset over South Carolina) this team is capable of considerably outplaying its limited talent level and definitely capable of keeping it close enough to keep things interesting.
Make it a gentleman's bet for Tennessee +8.5
NFL
Dallas +7 @ New Orleans
I wanted to make a "the damn that was the Dallas defense has officially been breached" joke but I thought that might be inappropriate. Either way, New Orleans should be able to take care of the Cowboys in this game. As great as Dez and Tony have been this season, Drew and Jimmy have been better.
I guess you should take New Orleans -7
Denver -7 @ San Diego
In most cases, losing the head coach would be a big issue. But we all know Peyton was more or less the coach anyways. I don't see Manning letting Jack Del Rio do anything that would slow this team down. The Chargers have looked good against a pretty easy schedule so far but 7 is not a lot for Denver to cover here.
Go with Denver -7
Detroit PK @ Chicago
What's great about this game is all you have to do is predict the winner and you don't have to worry about the point-spread. The only reason why I would guess Vegas has this game as even is because it's in Chicago. However, Detroit is the much more healthy team. Even with Jay Cutler coming back, it's impossible to know how long he'll last after the first few hits from Ndonkeykong Suh. Also, if you haven't been paying close attention you've missed the fact that his Bears defense is not good. Calvin Johnson is.
Detroit wins it
Seattle -6 @ Atlanta
Atlanta can't run the ball and won't be able to pass against the Legion of Boom. I'd be wary of this game because Seattle isn't great on the road, but 6 points is not a lot to ask. Seattle could play poorly and easily win 20-13 or 28-20.
Let's take Seattle -6
Houston +2.5 @ Arizona
Houston still employs Randy Bullock. Houston is being led into this game by Wade Phillips.
Take Arizona -2.5
Good luck out there.
0 comments: