The Preseason NBA Rookie Projections

By Jake Boxberger

If I were to ask you what the best time of the year for sports is, what would you say? Yes, the end of October is the correct answer.  Football is in full swing, baseball is actually semi-meaningful and most importantly, basketball is starting.  Now, I realize that we all still have the bitter taste of the Heat escaping with an NBA title amidst possibly the biggest collapse in NBA Finals history in our mouths, but now we can finally look to the future.  

The future, in this case is the NBA Rookie class.  Just to preface, I am the kind of guy who will shell out 18 bucks just to watch a bunch of guys (on a shitty computer stream) that will probably be playing in Latvia (sprinkled with some of this years rookie crop) because there might be a sleeping giant or god forbid a Danny Green waiting to make his mark.  I consider myself well versed on talent analysis, but full disclosure, after watching the summer league last year I thought that Tornike Shengelia was going to be a serious spark plug off the bench for the Nets. His play in the summer league raised some serous discussion, but in the end he logged about 90 total NBA minutes with a lackluster 1.6 points per game.  But hey, he was one hell of a D-League star for the Springfield Armor.  

Anyways, I am going to do my best to breakdown a class of Rookies that is less inspiring than Kutcher’s portrayal of the late Steve Jobs.  Although, star power is lacking, solid rotation players are not. This draft is not a repeat of the class of 2000, which featured such stars as Stromile Swift, Darius Miles, Marcus Fizer and Austin’s own Chris Mihm in the top 7 (yes, I know he had injury issues).   I just do not see too many All Stars in the mix.  And now that we are into the end of October, these kids have less than a few weeks to get ready to show us the goods.

Here… We… Go!

My Rookie Top 5

1. Victor Oladipo, 6’4 (maybe) 215lbs, Indiana University à Orlando Magic

Pretty much everyone and their mother is pick Debo to be the ROY, and with good reason. ‘Baby Wade’ is in the perfect situation to win the award: a talentless squad that probably is following the risky doctrine of ‘Riggin for Wiggins.’ He will be given the green light from day one and if the summer league is any indication, he may be asked to be the primary ball handler.  He looked spotty and out of control at times while handling the point, but I think coach Jacques Vaughan will get his mind right. Honestly, point guard may end up being his best position.  He is undersized for the two-guard and has a very spotty jumper.  

That being said, where he lacks in size and stroke, he makes up for in FREAKISH athleticism.  He boasted a combine best 42 inch max vert in addition to a 33 inch standing vert and a 10.69 on the agility drill.  He also kind of looks like a Ninja Turtle, which could work in his favor… I don’t know. Even if Victor can’t hit the broad side of a barn, he will be successful this year because of his tenacious play. If you watched any college basketball whatsoever last year, it was apparent that he was one of the top three on ball defenders out there and the numbers speak to that (over 2 steals per game). He will lock down the point and two-guard position and could ever D some 3, but we will see.  

I believe that while his jumper needs work, he will shoot a good % because he will attack the basket a la Dwyane Wade (why is the ‘y’ before the ‘a’?).  All in all, I like Oladipo.  He is the closest to a sure thing in this years draft because you know where his floor is, but he could have a ceiling that puts the Vatican to shame.  I know I haven’t written a ton about this kid, but honestly, that’s not a bad thing.  I don’t think much needs to be said about him, just watch any Indiana game and you will see what I am saying.  He is an easy choice for the #1 spot.

Projected Stats: 15 ppg, 5 rpb, 3.5 apg, 2 stls

Career Comparison: Best – D Wade Worst – Rodney Stuckey/ Tony Allen

2. Ben McLemore, 6’4 2-bills, University of Kansasà

Sacramento

It is only fitting that my number two pick is the Anti-Oladipo.  Where VO stunned folks in his interview skills and with his V-8 Motor (Victor should be number 8, cause that would be a good nickname), Ben Mac fell flat with his verbal skills and was constantly questioned for his lack of maturity.  This is not to say that people think he is a bad kid, far from it.  Rather, it seemed that many GM’s just thought that he did not have the mind to handle the pressures of the NBA just yet.  In addition, McLemore did not show the same heart and fire that VO did during the most recent college season.  As a fan of Kansas basketball, I was waiting for him to consistently take over a game with his dynamic stroke and superior bounce.  

There were flashes, but nothing that showed he could do it when it mattered most (compare the two Iowa State games, for example).  Alright, enough with the negative, because this kid has serious skills.  He has by far the prettiest jump shot in the draft and the kind of ups that should make for some entertaining posters.  He is only 20 years old and with a solid veteran mentor, he could lean a lot during the season and be a 17ppg man. Then again, he plays in Sacramento, where his mentors will be Boogie Cousins and Isaiah Thomas (not the Hall of Famer).  Luckily, HE PLAYS IN SACRAMENTO, so there shouldn’t be too much off the court to distract him.

His summer league play made me scratch my head.  While that natural stroke was on display, he shot worse than I could have ever imagined.  Questionable shot selection an underwhelming effort in the first few games left us wanting more, but also wondering whether BMac is destined to be a JR Smith clone. He finished the summer league in a big way with 27 points and 9 rebounds including possibly the best throw down in Vegas.  That being said, one game does not a rookie season make.  I hope he kills it, especially with Tyreke Evans no longer in the picture. We shall see…

Projected Stats: 16ppg, 3 rpb, 2.5 apg (low shooting %)

Career Comparison: Best – Jesus Shuttlesworth Worst – Poor Man’s JR Smith

3. Cody Zeller, 7 feet 250 lbs, Indiana University à

Charlotte Bobhornetcats

Man, this one really pisses me off.  I had high expectations for Zeller, then MJ picked him.  Yeah, I was also an Adam Morrison fan, and we all saw how that turned out when the GOAT hand picked him. I still have faith that he will be one of the more solid picks of the draft: a consistent, reliable rotation player that will not bitch and moan if he isn’t getting his shots.  I think I need to clear up some misconceptions with Zeller.  First of all, his nickname in college was ‘The Big Handsome,’ and I am sorry, but c’mon.  I know its Indiana, but seriously, Owen Wilson’s nose thinks Zeller’s needs work.  

As far as his play goes, I’ve been reading two common themes with Zeller: he is not athletic enough, and he is weak.  First of all, he is very athletic.  He had the highest standing vert at the combine measuring at 34.5”.  If you doubt the numbers, take a look at the way he finished off the pick and roll in the summer league (here’s a hint, he dunked it a lot… no Tiago Splitter BS).  While he is not the strongest prospect out there, he wont be playing in the 90’s.  He is playing in a league where Harrison Barnes can start at the 4 spot.   

If you don’t think that he can keep up with the new breed four, again I think you are wrong. He had the fastest agility time at the combine (2.69 seconds) and was a solid sixth in the sprint (3.15 seconds, fastest of any PF or C).  The kid can flat out fly up and down the court at 7 feet, which is a luxury for a team to have at the four spot.  What I question is his ability to stretch defenses immediately.  He looked uncomfortable with any sort of pressure off his pick and pop shots. If he wants to be the stretch four, he needs to solidify that, Ryan Anderson style.  Also, while I love the potential high-low action that he will have with Al Jefferson, I am terrified that as a rookie he will have no help on the weak side from his center.  Big Al might be one of the worst defenders out there.

Projected Stats: 11ppg, 6rpg, 2.5 apg

Career Comparison: Best – slightly more handsome Bosh, Worst – Ersan Illyasova

4. Kelly Olynyk, 7 feet 240 lbs, Gonzaga University à

Boston Celtics

Let the hating begin… Honestly, disagree all you want but the kid can play.  He may not be the most athletic, but he has a polished game that is well suited to be immediately impactful in the NBA and will add even more depth to a rapidly growing Canadian National Team (See: Andrew Wiggins, Cory Joseph, Tristan Thompson, Anthony Bennett).  I, like others, was very skeptical at first.  Although I was down with his goofy look, I thought that his stats (18ppg, 8 rpg) were inflated due to the average competition in the WCC.  I really started to buy in while watching my Wichita State Shockers stun the Bulldogs in the second round of the tourney.  

The Shox were known for being a team that would beat you to a pulp (ask Ohio State or Pitt), but Olynyk stood fast in the face of constant double teams on his way to a 26 point, 9 rebound performance.  While he only went 8-22 from the field, he cannot be fully to blame for that loss.  Then there was the Orlando Summer League, which he practically made his playground (again, 18pts 8rbs).  He was head and shoulders above any rookie there and showed refined post moves, soft outside touch and decent defense.  What shocked me was his elevated court vision and his efficiency from the field.  Apparently this is because he played point guard until hitting a massive growth spurt.

As I mentioned though, he has average athleticism and strength.  This could be an issue early, especially if he has to play center instead of forward.  He is already racking up way too many fouls in the preaseason and needs to get that under control.  One commentator in Orlando said they could see him falling into a Keith Van Horn mold.  I like that comparison because Keith had a string of 5 or so great seasons, then his lack of athleticism and the intelligence of defenses caused him to fizzle out.  If he wants to have a longer career, he needs to work out that athleticism as best he can and constantly diversify his skill set.

Projected Stats: 9 ppg 6.5 rpg 1.5 apg

Career Comparison: Best – Van Horn mixed w/ Ryan Anderson, Worst – Raef Lafrentz

5. Anthony Bennett, 6’8” 240 lbs (at least), UNLV à

Cleveland Cavs

Alright, so when I originally wrote this article in the summer, Anthony Bennett was not on my list.  The number three spot was actually occupied by CJ McCollum (my favorite player in the draft), but the kid broke his foot and should be out for the first six or so weeks of the season.  At that point I think he will have to fight too hard with the likes of Mo Williams for the backup point spot, therefore, Bennett makes his appearance. This was difficult because Bennett hadn’t played in the Summer League due to a shoulder injury, but watching the preseason, I can already envision early success.

Like Bill Simmons I also let out a Freudian shout when the Commish called Bennett’s name first, but I now see what the Cavs are going for.  They have a talented team led by one of the bright stars in the league and are a darling to make a playoff run for the first time since that guy bolted for the beach.  When you have a team that is ready to win now, it is stupid to spend a pick on a project big man with a torn up knee (Nerlens).  Instead, they played it safe and went with a player that can immediately be folded in to this young and energetic roster.  What position is this kid?  Honestly, I am not sure, but that is what makes him great.  He is a BIG body that is surprisingly light on his feet.  

To go along with that, he has polished low post game with the ability to step out and drain threes.  He doesn’t do anything great, but does almost everything on the court “good.”  Say they want to play “big ball,” you can plug him in at small forward a la Josh Smith. A more likely role for him will be to play up tempo with Irving.  They move Tristan Thompson to center, Bennett at four, then Kyrie and Dion in the backcourt.  Let me tell you ladies and gentlemen, if you have League Pass, you should choose this team.

All in all, Bennett could be higher on the list, but there are just so many scorers on that team.  This kid will be an impact player and while he wont get the start, by mid season he will be getting sixth man minutes.  The obvious comparison is Big Baby Davis with less flab and a more “team first” personality, but I think he is better than that.  He has a longer wing span, way more skilled and far more athletic.  Can he stay healthy though? Oh, one more thing… the kid is from Canada (they’re coming).

Projected Stats: 9 points, 5 rpg, 2.4 apg

Career Comparison: Best: Paul Millsap with perimeter skills Worst: Better Big Baby

There it is… the top 5 rookies in my estimation for this year.  Agree or disagree, I don’t really care.  Let’s be honest with ourselves, we are all just waiting for next years draft anyways.  Part II, complete with steals and busts to come shortly.