Brownie's NBA Draft Recap
I get it, this is a little late. More like a month late.
Whatever. I was across the pond in London and a few other places so I was a
little bit out of the loop. But considering that Marsh either doesn’t care much
about the NBA or just acts like he doesn’t, by default I am the YHTS NBA guru. I’m
a pretty big basketball junky, to the point that I watched the NBA scouting
combine (I’m probably one of about 11 people who can say that) and I have
watched almost every summer league game thus far so I have a pretty good handle
on how a lot of this year’s rookie class will look this season. So, that being
said, here is my take on the 2013 NBA lottery picks.
1. Anthony Bennett, F
– Cleveland Cavaliers
- My evaluation: Bennett is one of the few guys that I am
pretty high on out of this year’s draft class. The guy is absolutely tenacious
on the offensive end of the floor and, when the mood strikes him, is a vicious
offensive rebounder. He is a physically dominating athlete who is young and is
only going to develop more. He can sky for rebounds and dunks and is well built
for his age. He has a solid enough perimeter game too, although he thrives in
the power forward position where he can bully smaller or weaker defenders.
Really the two big downsides to his game are that he is grossly undersized for
his natural position, and he can get lazy at times. For a guy who makes his
living by being “tenacious” and “vicious” on the offensive glass, he doesn’t
have the luxury of taking plays off like he occasionally did in college.
- How he fits: I don’t like his fit with the Cavs at all. I
think another team could have justified taking him number 1 overall but I don’t
think the Cavs can. He’s a great talent and he will help the team but I really
don’t see how he is going to be able to be effective on a team that already has
a 2nd year center (Tyler Zeller), a 3rd year power
forward (Tristan Thompson), and just made a 2-year offer to basketball
enigma/cancer Andrew Bynum. This is a very crowded frontcourt folks. If the
Cavs plan on using him at the small forward position (the position they should
have drafted) then they are going to have to give him about 2-3 years to
develop and may even need to give him about a year and a half in the
developmental league. I don’t think they see him as a small forward though
considering they are going to try to bring back their prodigal son, LBJ, after
the conclusion of next season.
- Player comparison: I kind of see him turning into a more
athletic, less aggressive Zach Randolph.
Like Z-Bo, Bennett is undersized for his natural position but makes up for it
by using his dominant physique to muscle up and bully defenders. If Bennett
wants to be as effective as Z-Bo, he is going to have to embrace the bad-boy
image and develop a “fuck you” mentality in order to take out his imaginary
frustration on anybody who stands between him and the basket.
2. Victor Oladipo, G
– Orlando Magic
- My evaluation: I’m really, really high on Oladipo. I think he
may take a while to develop offensively but when he does he will end up being
the best player out of this draft class. He is going to be a lock-down defender
for his entire career and is getting more and more polished on the other end of
the floor. He has two elite traits that are going to make him a big time player
for the Magic right away. His athleticism is right up there with the likes of D-Rose,
Westbrook, and Wade (when he was young and healthy). He has strength, bounce,
quickness, body control, you name it. To go along with that he has truly elite
toughness and work ethic. On nights where he doesn’t have it going on offense,
he will always bring it on defense and he will always be the hardest working
player on the floor. His jump shot is MIA right now but that, unlike work ethic
and athleticism, is a skill that can be taught and mastered. This guy is a
future all-star.
- How he fits: He is
immediately the Magic’s best player. It will take him a little while to establish
himself as an offensive presence but this is exactly the kind of player you
want to take if you are trying to rebuild your franchise. Maybe he won’t be a
superstar if he can’t ever develop offensively, but he is going to be the face
and heart of the franchise for years to come because he will set the tone and
make the Magic a much tougher, more focused team that will make its name by
beating you up on the glass and defensive end of the floor. Oladipo is the
player the Magic needed and they should be doing jumping jacks over the fact
that they got him.
- Player comparison: I could see him turning into a few
different players but I really think he will end up being a poor man’s Russell Westbrook. When Westbrook was
coming out of college he was nearly identical to Oladipo: freak athlete,
tenacious defender (Russ was the college defensive player of the year when he
came out), and RAW offensively. Oladipo needs to develop a jump shot, gain a
better understanding of NBA defenses, learn patience on the offensive end, and
figure out how to pace himself to not wear himself out for the end of the game.
These are all things that were Westbrook’s biggest faults coming into the
league. I’m not saying Oladipo will be the offensive force that Westbrook is,
but don’t be surprised if he is. Additionally, Oladipo is being transitioned
from athletic shooting guard to super athletic point guard with size, just like
Westbrook was. The more I think about it, the more I love this comparison.
3. Otto Porter, F –
Washington Wizards
- My evaluation: I really like Porter as a player. He is never
going to be an all-star but he is going to be in the league for a long time
because of how versatile he is. Porter doesn’t do any one thing really great,
but he does all of the little things really well. Being a Jack-of-all-trades
has always been a valued skill, regardless of position, and it will be no
different with Porter. He can take you inside or outside, high post, wing,
corner, etc. He can shoot mid range jump shots, step out to the three, find
cutters with his outstanding passing and court vision (a trait of almost every
Georgetown product), and he rebounds and plays defense. His biggest challenge
will be trying to D up bigger, stronger small forwards because he is still
pretty slender. I don’t really see him checking players like Paul George, Andre
Iguodala, LBJ (obviously), Melo, and the other legit small forwards in the
league.
- How he fits: PERFECT fit for the rebuilding Washington
Wizards. They already have their backcourt of the future in Bradley Beal and
John “Do the John Wall” Wall. They have a pretty good temporary power forward
and center, though they definitely need to upgrade to put themselves back into
eastern conference contention. I think Porter fills enough holes to make the
Wizards a playoff team this year, but they won’t be much better than a 6 or 7
seed in the East and are probably looking at a first round exit to either the
Nets or the Bulls.
- Player comparison: I think Porter is the second coming of Tayshaun Prince. In his heyday, Prince
was one of those guys that did a little bit of everything and even though he
wasn’t ever elite at any one thing, he was a guy that would always make the
opposing team’s fans hold their breath anytime he touched the ball late in the
game. I think Porter will fit that mold because he is a high IQ player who (as
I have already beat to death) does a little bit of everything, which makes up
for his slight frame by outthinking his opponent. That last sentence applies to
either Porter or Prince.
4. Cody Zeller, F/C –
Charlotte Bobcats
- My evaluation: Basically your traditional white big man. He
has an array of moves in the post and a pretty good midrange jump shot. He has
bulked up a lot in the past two years, which shows signs of further growth. He
is a super high-energy player and an aggressive rebounder and defender. He
actually has decent athleticism but he is kind of caught in between a power
forward and center, which doesn’t bode well for him down the road. He either
needs to bulk up a lot to bang with centers inside, or polish up his 10-16 foot
game to play power forward. I think Zeller is going to have to decide pretty
early what kind of player he wants to be if he wants to be effective in the
league.
- How he fits: To be honest it is hard to say that he is a
great fit for Charlotte, although he does fill a need, considering that the
Bobcats need pretty much everything. I have a really hard time believing that
the Bobcats looked at the board and said “Cody Zeller is definitely the fourth
best player in this draft.” My guess is that they are gunning for the top spot
in the Andrew Wiggins sweepstakes next year so they just took a player that
they think can be a quality role player for years to come. It’s a gamble by MJ
but for as bad as the Bobcats are it’s actually probably the right move. The
Bobcats weren’t going to find their franchise player this year so why not take
a safe guy, which is exactly what they have in Zeller.
- Player comparison: I think Zeller’s upside is that of Nick Collison. I think he will struggle
to find his offensive game against the more athletic bigs he will be going up
against in the league, but I think he may end up being an absolute pest on the
offensive glass with the ability to clean up misses and do the dirty work while
also stepping out and hitting 12 -16 foot jumpers. He will bring energy and
heart every time he steps on the floor, and if he can put his ego aside and
accept his roleplayer status then he will wind up being a fan favorite in Charlotte
who compliments their future superstar very well.
5. Alex Len, C –
Phoenix Suns
- My evaluation: I hate this pick for the Suns. Len is a pretty
good offensive center with some good moves and touch around the basket. He also
has legit NBA center size, standing around 7’1, which helped him in college.
Here lies my problem with Len though. He just never dominated in college,
despite superior size and skill. Certainly some of that can be attributed to
poor play from teammates, but still, come on man. He was the most physically
dominant presence on the court almost every time he entered the gym but just
never delivered. At some point it shouldn’t matter how good your teammates are,
you have to take over when you have a skill set like that. I don’t know if he
is passive, lazy, overrated, or a bit of all three, but regardless of the
reason, he is going to get eaten alive in the NBA, especially in the West with
some of the big men he is going to be seeing every night. It is too early to
call him a bust but I wouldn’t be surprised if that is how he ends up.
- How he fits: The Suns may be doing a bit of what the Bobcats
did, taking a decent big in order to tank this year and go for a superstar in
next year. If that is the case (although they would never come out and say so)
then I think the Suns can defend this pick. Len isn’t the future of the
franchise though. He is a good role player at best.
- Player comparison: I’m not really going to compare Len to
anybody because, to be perfectly frank, I don’t really see him sticking in the
league for too long. At the very least I think he is going to wind up being
more of a journeyman big who comes off the bench for 4 or 5 different teams.
Best of luck to you Len, really, but I’m not super high on you.
6. Nerlens Noel, C –
Philadelphia 76ers
- My evaluation: Noel is well-documented YHTS favorite. The
timeless high top is outdone only by the fantastic alliteration of his uniquely
recognizable name. He has to add about 30-40 lbs before he can really be the
effective defensive stopper that his upside suggests he will be, but he should
do that in 2 or 3 years on an NBA weight program. His offensive game is a
question mark at this point but he is athletic enough to develop a hook shot
and an up-and-under. I think he will end up being about an 8-12 point per game
player who should pull down double digit rebounds and block anywhere from 3-5
shots a game. I like Noel a lot as a prospect on the defensive end of the
floor, but I don’t think his offensive game will ever develop enough to make
him an all-star. Still, he is a steal at number 6 because of how great he
projects to be on defense.
- How he fits: Noel is a perfect fit for the 76ers, who badly
needed a real center after Andrew Bynum effectively thumbed his nose at the
franchise last year by sitting out the season then leaving. Philly needs to be
patient with him and let him grow physically and gain confidence, but he will
be the kingpin of their defense for years to come, as long as he stays healthy.
- Player comparison: Noel has a long way to go if he wants the
resume of Tyson Chandler, but that
is the kind of defensive force I think he will become. He is almost a carbon
copy of Chandler as a player (slim, athletic, high IQ defender, shot blocker).
Noel should watch tape of Chandler for the next few months and study his
footwork and timing in the paint on the defensive end.
7. Ben McLemore, G –
Sacramento Kings
- My evaluation: McLemore, physically, is the most talented
player in this draft. He has by far the sweetest shooting stroke in this class,
and has the bounce to jump through the rafters. When McLemore is engaged he is
thoroughly unstoppable and can score from almost anywhere on the floor. He
should end up being a 20-25 point per game man during his prime. The problem
with Ben “$20 in my pocket” McLemore is that he isn’t always engaged. Not only
that, but he becomes disengaged at seemingly the worst possible times. He will
just disappear for long stretches during the game and appears to be quiet and
timid in big moments, which is not ideal for the 7th overall pick in
the draft. Still, based on talent McLemore could develop into a very good
player who might make 1 or 2 all-star games.
- How he fits: Sacramento is just all over the map as a
franchise, so taking a small personality player might be exactly what they
need. The fear with the pick, though, is that he will be drowned out by the
bigger personalities on the team. The Kings are rebuilding and unlike the Suns
and Bobcats, they opted to take the high upside, hit-or-miss player instead of
the traditional role player. I will be interested in seeing how McLemore
develops, and if he is able to step up and create his own niche with Sacramento
instead of getting swallowed in the chasm of anarchy that is the Kings franchise,
like many talented players before him.
- Player comparison: I see McLemore turning into a Kevin Martin type of player, when
Martin played for the Rockets. McLemore should be a sweet shooter, who can also
pump fake and put it on the floor to finish at the rim with grace and the
occasional flush. When he was with the Rockets, Martin put up around 18-22
points per game, which is about what I expect out of McLemore. Neither plays
much defense.
8. Kentavious
Caldwell-Pope, G – Detroit Pistons
- My evaluation: Marsh would disagree with this, wholeheartedly
in favor of Nerlens Noel, but Kentavious Caldwell-Pope secures my vote for
“coolest name in the draft.” At times, KCP can be an absolute assassin from
deep. In a game earlier today against my beloved Thunder, KCP went into a
rhythm and was netting shots from all over the court. The problem with KCP is
that he is streaky. Like, really streaky. He has the potential to go off at any
point and win your team games, but at the same time he can shoot you out of the
game in a heartbeat. He is a very good athlete with good bounce but from what I
have seen of him so far he doesn’t seem interested in using that athleticism
for defense. KCP has a lot of holes in his game but he has a TON of upside. If
he pans out then he will end up being the steal of the draft.
- How he fits: He fits pretty well with the Pistons. He won’t
get many touches early on and will be used mostly as a spot up shooter because
the bulk of the offense will run through Brandon Knight, Greg Monroe (one of my
favorite players), and newly acquired Josh Smith. That should actually work
well to KCP’s advantage though because he will not be pressured to do much more
than shoot threes. I think the franchise has bigger plans for him, but for
right now he’s going to be a role player while he develops.
- Player comparison: I would compare him to Paul George back when George was
initially drafted. At the time, George was a bit of a question mark and people
didn’t really know how to peg him. He was a big, athletic shooting guard out of
Fresno State who had tremendous range on his jump shot and athleticism off the
dribble, but otherwise was very raw. George is better now than KCP will likely
be, but I think that if KCP develops and hones in his skills then he will turn
into a poor man’s Paul George. I don’t think KCP will be an all-star, but at
the same time I wouldn’t be surprised if he made it 1 or 2 times. Also, both of
their mascots in college were Bulldogs. Just food for thought.
9. Trey Burke, G –
Utah Jazz
- My evaluation: Solid, solid, solid. That is about the best
way to describe Burke. He has deep range on his three, and though it can be
inconsistent at times, he hits them when they count. He doesn’t have ELITE
athleticism or quickness, but he is very good in both categories and has a
well-above average basketball IQ. He did great things in Michigan, although a
large part of that may come from the fact that he had a terrific supporting
cast. I think there will be some early growing pains, and his ankles will be
sore from how often they get broken, but I think a smart player like him will
catch up sooner than later. Burke would probably be one of the better point
guards in the league, were he to enter the NBA during any other decade.
Unfortunately this is the era of the elite point guards, so Burke will probably
be middle-tier, to slightly above middle-tier for most of his career. He
obviously won’t be better than guys like Westbrook, Rondo, and D-Rose, but I
don’t think he will be better than some of the 2nd tier PGs like
Damien Lillard and Kyrie Irving (although I think in about 2 or 3 years Irving
will be one of the top 3 point guards in the league so maybe that one isn’t
fair). Burke is a very solid player who should have a long career as a leader and
quality teammate.
- How he fits: At this point the Jazz will basically take
whatever they can get. They are in rebuilding mode still, but they aren’t rock
bottom like Charlotte or Phoenix. That being said, the Jazz have to be thrilled
about Burke dropping to a place where they could make some moves and grab him.
He is going to be one of those rookies who plays with veteran savvy and is an
immediate favorite in the locker room. I don’t think he’ll be the face of the
Utah franchise, but he will be a fan favorite and a great leader. Burke is
everything you look for in an NBA point guard, and the Jazz are undoubtedly
glad to have him.
- Player comparison: I think Burke reminds me most of a young Chauncey Billups. Burke has already
proven that, like Mr. Big Shot, he is clutch when it counts and has a knack for
making big plays. I don’t think he will ever put up particularly sexy numbers,
maybe 14 points a game and 5-7 assists, but I do think he will become a
household name because of his tendency to knock down big shots. Some people are
just naturally cold blooded. I could also see him developing into Mike Conley
Jr. type of player, which the Jazz would happily take.
10. C.J. McCollum, G
– Portland Trail Blazers
- My evaluation: Admittedly I haven’t seen as much of McCollum
as I have of the other players, but I have seen enough to know that the Blazers
reached a bit for McCollum. He is a good athlete with a very smooth shooting
stroke, and was an excellent college scorer. I don’t think that will be enough
to make him particularly effective in the league though. He will likely turn
into a good spot up three-point shooter, but I don’t think he will do much more
than that. Also, his lack of great athleticism is too big of a factor to make
him an effective defender.
- How he fits: I don’t really know where the Blazers are going
with their franchise. The struck gold with Lillard and Aldridge is obviously a
stud, but they don’t have too much else going for them. Meyers Leonard could
pan out into a pretty solid center but for now the Blazers have some pretty
glaring holes at the center and small forward spots. McCollum will probably see
some pretty good looks, playing with Lillard next to him, but I don’t see him
doing too much more than that. I think the Trail Blazers fell in love with
picking up the small school stars, and I think it’s going to bite them in the
ass.
- Player comparison: There are plenty of shooting specialists
in the league but the one that I think McCollum is most like is Daequan Cook. Cook was a bit more than
just a shooter coming out of college but at this point all he really does is
just hang out in the corners and wait for teammates to drive and dish. I think
that is what McCollum will wind up doing too.
11. Michael
Carter-Williams, G – 76ers
- My evaluation: Terrific prospect, but right now he is nothing
more than just a prospect. He shows flashes of greatness every time he plays
with excellent court vision and passing (largely due to the fact that he is 6’6
as a PG), and he has pretty solid athleticism to go along with it. He is a
wiry, long defender who gets a lot of steals and rebounds by sticking his nose
in the passing lanes and taking away anything he can sniff out. His shot is a
work in progress at the moment, but that isn’t to say he will never develop
one. He really badly needs to fill out because although he towers over most
point guards, he is going to get pushed around a lot more than he would like. He
is raw with a lot to work on, but the upside is there.
- How he fits: He should come in and start right away for the
rebuilding 76ers. Between him and Noel, Philly has two projects for the future
that they will need to be patient with. Both players do have tremendous upside
though, despite being raw at the time being. He can get to the rim and finish
well inside, but he doesn’t provide enough offense by himself to lead the team
in that category, so Philly is still a few pieces away.
- Player comparison: I kind of see him playing like a poor
man’s Rajon Rondo. Like Rondo, MCW
will struggle with his jump shot for a long time, but also like Rondo, MCW will
make up for it but slithering his way through the paint and finishing
acrobatically at the rim. Also, like Rondo, MCW has a rare vision and passing
ability, often seeing plays before they happen. Once he gets up to NBA speed he
will average double digit assists. He is a long, active defender (like Rondo)
who will gamble a lot, which will result in a lot of steals. MCW is long,
crafty, and pesky. Just like Rondo.
12. Stephen Adams, C
– OKC Thunder
- My evaluation: Okay, I will try to do this one as unbiased as
I can. Adams is basically just a huge, athletic frame right now. His basketball
IQ isn’t particularly high, and he isn’t overly skilled but he is just such an
athletic specimen that his upside is pretty high. He is basically the exact
opposite of Len. Adams is very unpolished offensively, but he has a ton of room
to grow into a dominant defensive center. With his size and age, there is a lot
to look forward to, but it will take a lot of hard work and practice for him to
reach his potential. Adams needs to get with some past greats to work on his
footwork and post moves. Right now, like I said, he is just a big frame. But
there is a lot to be excited about with him. The kind of player Adams becomes
is entirely up to him.
- How he fits: Landing with the Thunder was a pretty great
scenario for Adams because he probably won’t reach the NBA for 2 years. Adams
is stuck behind a few pretty good big men in OKC, so he doesn’t need to be
rushed into action for a while. Sam Presti, who learned how to run a franchise
from the San Antonio Spurs, is not shy about using the developmental league and
will not hesitate to plant Adams there until he is ready to contribute.
- Player comparison: It is a little too early to say really,
because Adams is so raw. Just to throw out a name though, I think Adams has the
ceiling of a Ben Wallace kind of
defensive player. If Adams develops his skills and gets a mean streak then he
could be an absolute nightmare for any big trying to post him up. To be fair
though, I really don’t think he is going to be Ben Wallace good. I’m just
saying he has that much potential.
13. Kelly Olynyk, F/C
– Boston Celtics
- My evaluation: Despite my better judgment, I am pretty high
on Kelly “The Viking” Olynyk. He is deceptively athletic for a 7-foot white
dude. He has very good post moves with great strength and touch around the rim,
he can step out and shoot it out to about 18 feet, he rebounds hard on both
ends, and is just an all-around white dude work horse. He makes up for his lack
of elite athleticism by being fundamentally sound and working way harder than
his opponent. Plus he looks like a Viking, how can you not love that? I don’t
think he will be an all-star, but he will be a good player for a long time and
could eventually be the heartbeat of a championship team. He’s not great, but
good.
- How he fits: This guy is exactly the kind of player the
Celtics have built their storied franchise around. He just grinds, bruises,
bangs, and works hard from tip-off to the final buzzer. For a franchise that is
rebuilding, this guy is exactly the kind of player that you want. He is going
to be a very high caliber role player that I think will stick in Boston for a
pretty long time. Celtic fans are going to love his blue-collar mentality and
embrace the flow.
- Player comparison: I could have gone with a few players here
but the one that I think works the best is David
West. West is a bit more athletic and more undersized than The Viking, but
their games are virtually identical. They can wear you down with a variety of
power moves inside, throw finesse hook shots and up-and-unders at you, or step
out and drain midrange shots when you decide you’ve had enough of them in the
post. Both defend and rebound very hard and will be rough matchups for smaller,
albeit more athletic defenders. I really like West, and I really, really like
The Viking.
Also, just to let it beknownst, I would have nicknamed him
The Great White Hope but I gave that one to Kevin Love a few years ago, so The
Viking will have to do.
14. Shabazz Muhammad,
G/F – Minnesota Timberwolves
- My evaluation: He is aggressive and will look to attack the
rim with force pretty much every time he gets the ball. Therein lies Muhammad’s
biggest flaw: he is a one trick pony. His jump shot is actually a little bit
underrated, but he doesn’t look to use it too often, and when he does it is
usually at inopportune moments. He is so aggressive offensively that he forces
a lot of really bad shots. He is going to get himself in some trouble with how
out of control he can get. That all being said though, he has one of the
highest motors in this class and if he learns how to play under control and
play with pace then he will actually end up being a pretty good NBA small
forward/shooting guard. He plays defense really hard at times, so if he gets
more consistent at that end then he will definitely find a nice niche for
himself in Minnesota.
- How he fits: Even though I’m not terribly high on him, I
actually really like the fit in Minnesota. He is out of control, but he also
can create his own shot, which is a trait that Minnesota desperately needs out
of it’s players. The one thing Muhammad will do more than anything is take
pressure off of Rubio and K-Love. Minnesota has quietly been building a pretty
good club, and I think that Muhammad fits the structure of their team nicely.
He should get big minutes right away and will likely be the starting small
forward by the end of the year, if he doesn’t start there right away.
- Player comparison: He will be a J.R. Smith kind of player, in my opinion. He is going to make some
plays that make you scratch your head and wonder if he realizes he is being
paid to play basketball, and not just goofing around on the playground.
However, he will also dazzle you at times and when he gets hot he will be
instant offense. He is more of a physically imposing athlete than Smith,
whereas Smith is smoother and springier, but both have very high-level
athleticism that they know how to use to their advantage. Muhammad won’t be the
shooter that Smith is, but he will also play a little bit better defense.
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