Brownie's College Preview: Freshman

College Basketball's Most Intriguing Freshman

By Andrew Brown

The college basketball season this year has more promise than almost any that I can remember in a long time. Teams all across the country are loaded with extreme talent thanks to one of the most promising freshman classes since Kevin Durant and Greg Oden were coming out of high school. It is highly likely that this year could put as many as five or six freshmen in the top 10 of next year’s NBA draft. Additionally, there is more high-level parody throughout the country, which will result in tremendous competition across the board and some instant classic performances from some of the future stars of the NBA. That being said, here are the five players that I am most excited to see play this season:

PG – Marcus Smart, So. Oklahoma State

Smart, in all honesty, probably should have declared for the draft last year. He would have been a top-3 pick, likely landing at number two with the Orlando Magic. But still it is hard to bash a kid for choosing to stay in college and develop his game. That shows a level of drive and maturity that supersede the need to get paid.

What that tells me about him is that he understands that talent alone doesn’t lead to success. Smart had obvious holes in his game, such as a questionable jump shot. Last year Smart shot only 29% from three, and moving back another six feet in the NBA would have only diminished his returns. After a full offseason of working on his shot and his range, I expect that percentage to bump up to around 34-37% this year, which will make the rest of his game more dangerous and effective.

Additionally, Smart averaged 4.2 assists per game last year. That is a solid number, especially for a freshman, but for a guy who was the primary ball handler and leader on a super talented Cowboys team, that number should have been higher. Plus, he averaged 3.4 turnovers per game, a number that needs to be cut almost in half this year.

Smart reminds me a lot of Jason Kidd: a big, versatile, highly intelligent point guard who plays smart, hard, and for all the right reasons. Smart has total control over the Cowboys team in his second year, and under his leadership he could be looking at a Final Four birth in his likely last season in college. This kid is going to be fun to watch this year.

SG – Andrew Wiggins, Fr. Kansas

Wiggins is probably the most hyped prospect I have ever seen. Had LeBron been coming up during the peak of the social media era then he likely would have seen the same (likely more) hype. As it is though, the pressure is on Wiggins this season to not only succeed at a high level, but to dominate competition from the opening tip.

That is really the main reason I am so excited to see this guy. Not so much because I want to see this elite talent on the court, draining threes and throwing down monster dunks in the face of quality Big 12 (10) competition this year, but rather I want to see how he deals with the pressure. Wiggins is a pretty shy person, who has done a wonderful job of handling his hype so far by keeping his mouth shut (a tactic I wish more players would adopt), but when you’re an elite prospect and your strategy is to let your game do the talking then your game better come out screaming right from the start.

Statistically, Wiggins is going to have a big season, probably somewhere along the lines of 17-22 points per game, with 6 rebounds and 3 assists per game or something like that, but if he comes out of the gates slow or fails to dominate when he is playing on the big stage or against top-flight competition then he will be unfairly subject to criticism of the talking heads who love to hate on 18 year olds just for the sake of hating on 18 year olds.

Wiggins is going to have a big year, I’m not worried about that because his elite skill set is too overwhelming for him not to, but I want to see how he handles everything off the court that comes with living in the national spotlight.

SF – Doug McDermott, Sr. Creighton

McDermott is one of my favorite college players ever. He is one of those rare players that kind of just transcends a position. Standing around 6’8, he has the size of an NBA small forward, but spends way more time on the blocks and in the high post than around the perimeter.

Simply put, this kid can flat out play. McDermott averaged 23.2 points per game last year, to go with 7.7 boards and a shooting percentage of around 55% (49% from 3 point land). He gets buckets from all over the floor and doesn’t let other players, or more athletic defenders dictate what he is trying to do offensively. That, to me, is the sign of a player who plays with a basketball understanding beyond his years – a trait that is common in the sons of coaches.

Additionally, despite gaining notoriety early on in his career McDermott has improved significantly every season. His scoring averages over his first three years went 14.9, 22.9, 23.2, and his percentages have gone up each season as well. He is a terrific shooter from almost anywhere on the floor, and is a nearly lights out free-throw shooter at 87.5%.

If there is one area where McDermott can make strides as a player it is on the defensive end of the floor. McDermott is a sub-par defender, especially because he is usually forced to defend players that are bigger and more athletic than he is. He has to learn how to use his feet and high IQ to anticipate his opponents next moves and beat guys to the spot.

I can’t wait to see what this guy does in his senior season. I’m a huge fan.

PF – Julius Randle, Fr. Kentucky

He doesn’t have the hype of Wiggins, but Randle might actually be better. The Kentucky freshman is what most analysts would best describe as a grown-ass-man. Randle has a massive frame that is both powerful and athletic, showing promise to turn into a dominant physical presence through the magic of a college-conditioning program.

Randle’s game is very well-rounded despite his young age. He plays with quickness on the perimeter, beating like-sized defenders with an electric first step and underrated handle and possesses an underrated jump shot that he can bury out to about 20 feet. He also plays with power and tremendous finishing strength when he takes the ball to the rim and posts up, manhandling smaller defenders. Athletically, Randle can hang with anyone and jam on any poor soul who gets in front of him when he has a full head of steam.

The problem, and main thing that will hold Randle’s production back this year is the fact that he plays at Kentucky. He will be sharing time and touches with other five-star recruits as he is part of one of, if not the best recruiting classes of all-time. First year players like the Harrison twins, James Young, as well as returning big men Alex Poythress and Willie Cauley-Stein are all first round NBA prospects who Randle will have to share the rock with, and those are just a few of the stud names on the Wildcat roster.

All in all, Randle is the best player on a very loaded team. His numbers may not be the sexiest in the country because he will only be a fraction of the total Wildcat experience this year, but Randle will still be a delight to watch play all season. His leadership, presence, and tough, physical play are going to terrorize competition and catch on with his teammates, likely resulting in a Kentucky national championship.

C – Karviar Shepherd, Fr. TCU

The good people here at YHTS are notorious homers and overrate and over evaluate our home teams (TCU for most of us), but this is actually not one of those instances. Shepherd was the number four center recruit in the country a year ago, and one of the top players in the state of Texas, ranking highly in the ESPN 150.

Shepherd, likely the best high school recruit TCU has ever signed, is a big-time athlete with tremendous bounce and coordination that makes him a force defensively. His timing, shot blocking, and anticipation will allow him to control the paint against most teams he plays, containing his one-on-one matchup while also helping teammates who get beat.

He is also athletic enough to play like a power forward offensively, posting up and going to a variety of moves like a sweet jump hook, or stepping out and beating his man with a 12-16 foot jump shot and quickness and ball handling that will surprise many. Shepherd has all the tools to be a double-double guy, as he is going to be the focal point for the young, but revamped TCU squad on both ends of the floor this season.

Therein lies the biggest problem for Shepherd coming into the season, though. Shepherd is going to be the target of any team with a strong front line, to try to put him in foul trouble. Shepherd is going to be relatively unprotected by any other significant front line players, as Aaron Durley and Devonta Abron have already been lost for the year due to preseason injuries.

Shepherd is going to be pretty isolated in the paint, which will be both positive and negative for the young center. He is going to face a lot of foul trouble early on, and be subject to injury. However, if he is able to remain on the court for long stretches then this season will be a tremendous corner stone in his development as a player. Shepherd can use this year as a chance to learn how to play smart and efficiently, outthinking his opponents to avoid foul trouble. He can also develop a smooth offensive game and become the leader and face of the future for a program that, under the tutelage of head coach Trent Johnson, is only two or three years away from becoming a legitimate, nationally known basketball program.

Shepherd has a challenging but exciting year ahead of him, and I feel fortunate to get to watch him develop from courtside all season. He’s a future NBA prospect.