Washington's Rangers

By Travis  Wilson

Washington DC may be experiencing a governmental shutdown, and it’s NFL team might have a few racially charged detractors, but one Washington that’s not feeling any heat is a man by the name of Ronald. Sure, there are some delusional Rangers fans and sports writers that are calling for Ron Washington’s head, but the man who really matters, Rangers GM Jon Daniels, has said that he wants to extend Wash’s contract. And I, for one, couldn’t agree more with Mr. Daniels’ decision.  

The argument for firing him is simple: he lacks the ability to win the big games. The Rangers lost two World Series in a row in 2010 and 2011 and spent the last two Septembers either squandering or feverishly chasing the playoffs. Some of Wash’s personnel decisions in key situations could be questioned, but when you step back and look at what he’s achieved in his stint as the Ranger’s manager, the notion of firing him seems ludicrous. 

Let’s start with a brief history of the Texas Rangers organization. As a kid, watching Pudge throw out fools who attempted to steal on him or watching Rusty Greer have one of the coolest names in the game (rivaled only by Fernando Tatis) endeared me to that organization. However, as a whole, they sucked. In fact, since the beginning of the Rangers’ existence in 1961 (they were the Washington Senators from ’61 to ’71), the ‘Gers managed to make the playoffs exactly once – in 1996 under Johnny Oates – before Ron Ron’s arrival in the Lone Star State. Since Washington took over in 2007, the Rangers have made the playoffs three times (technically, this season doesn’t count), and gone to the World Series twice. For a kid growing up watching the 90s Rangers, the thought of that franchise every going to the World Series seemed impossible. I have a feeling that those who want to see Wash ousted have either forgotten how bad the Rangers were before he arrived or have become spoiled by the success he’s achieved.

Sure, not all of the credit for this franchise turnaround can be attributed to Ron Washington. Jon Daniels has proven to be a masterful GM and Nolan Ryan’s partial ownership in the team has lead to a renewed focus on the pitching staff, but the man who is most involved in the day-to-day of the team is Ron Washington. If he’s allowed to be the scapegoat for the shortcomings of the last two seasons, he should also be recognized as the manager that turned a failing franchise into a perennial contender.

For those who want to replace Wash, I’m sure their main argument is in how the last two seasons ended. I can’t comment too much on the absolute meltdown of September 2012, but I can, in good conscious, blame it all on Josh Hamilton. Jon Daniels took care of that issue by not re-signing him and allowing him to flee for the far superior baseball town of Anaheim, which, in retrospect, might be the best move Jon Daniels has ever made. I’d like to focus more on the 2013 season since sports is such a “what have you done for me lately” arena.

Let’s take a look at a few of the players that ol’ Ronald had in 2012 but didn’t have in 2013. First of all, he lost Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, two huge contributors to the Rangers offense (as well as Michael Young, to a lesser extent). In the pitching rotation, he lost three starters from 2012 to injury: Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando and Matt Harrison. Everyone knows about the bad luck that cursed the Rangers’ starting rotation in 2013, but, for the most part, the replacement arms held their own. What Rangers fans really noticed in 2013 was the decreased offensive output.

One of my favorite stats in baseball is the WAR, or wins above replacement statistic. This statistic essentially compares a particular player to a “replacement player” at said player’s position and then determines how valuable your guy is.  For instance, let’s say John Doe has a WAR of 3. This basically means that Mr. Doe is worth 3 more wins to his team throughout the course of the season than if you replaced him with a replacement level player. For reference, a player with a WAR of 8 or greater is generally a league MVP type; 5+ is All-Star Quality; 2+ is a starter; 0-2 a reserve player; and less than 0 is a “replacement” level player. This stat sounds complicated, but its really not. Broken down to its simplest parts, it measures how many wins a particular player is worth on his own merits through the course of a given season. (Worth noting: Clayton Kershaw’s WAR in 2013 was 8.4 and Mike Trout’s was 9.2)

Now let’s get back to the disappointing offensive output for the 2013 Rangers squad. In 2012, Josh Hamilton had a WAR of 4.2 and Mike Napoli was at an even 2.0. Simplified, Hamilton and Napoli accounted for 6.2 wins in 2012 that wouldn’t have happened, statistically speaking, if there were replaced by a league average player. In 2013, the Rangers looked to replace Hamilton and Napoli’s offensive output with Lance Berkman and, later on, Jurickson Profar. In 2013, Berkman had a WAR of -0.2 and Profar was at a -0.4. This means that, based on who Ron Washington was able to send out on the field in 2012 versus 2013, he was operating at a deficit of 6.8 wins. Obviously you can’t have .8 wins, so I’ll just say 6 wins to make it a round number. The 2013 Rangers finished the season with 91 wins and 72 losses. So, if Washington had Napoli and Hamilton in 2013 (or two players of equal caliber) he could have expected to finish the season with 97 wins and 65 losses (65 not 66 because they wouldn’t have had to play that 163^rd game), which would have been good enough to finish in first place in the American League West, one game ahead of the A’s. Would anyone be clamoring to fire Wash if he had just won the division? Doubtful.

Furthermore, the 2012 Rangers had a record of 93 wins and 69 losses. So, factoring in the loss of Napoli and Hamilton and replacing them with Berkman and Profar (remember, cumulative WAR of-6.8 from 2012 to 2013), statistics tell you that the Rangers should have finished the 2013 season with a record of 87 wins and 75 losses (or 86 wins and 76 losses, depending on what you do with that .8 number). Instead, the Rangers went 91 and 72 in 2013, meaning Ron Washington overachieved by 4 or 5 wins. That’s not easy to do.

The Rangers have now won 90+ games in four consecutive seasons under Wash. Know how many times the Rangers won 90 games in their 46 year existence before Wash? Once. They had exactly 90 wins in 1996.

To be completely fair, I’ve oversimplified a few things for the sake of not boring you, but the point remains: the Rangers organization is better with Ron Washington than without Ron Washington. Those who argue that he can’t win the big game obviously weren’t watching Game 6 of the 2011 World Series – put ol’ Ron Ron out in right field and the Rangers are probably world champs.

As far as the “Washington’s” go, you can shutdown my government and barricade my monuments; you can offend the original inhabitants of my country (so close to Columbus Day, no less); but you can’t fire my Ronald.  And even if you disagree with everything I’ve just said, I still have an ace up my sleeve: no more Ron Washington means no more of this. 

Game over, I win.